In 2021 we were commissioned by the Tasmanian Department of State Growth to develop a method for estimating cycling demand on a proposed upgrade and extension of a key Tasmanian cycleway.

Our approach

Several data have been used to estimate usage of this proposed cycleway. The data sources relied upon in the development of the estimates include:

  • Census Journey to Work data from the most recent available Census (2016)
  • Household travel survey data, to build an understanding of non-work trips
  • Bike Use Propensity Index analysis, that was developed for this project based on a range of Census collected demographic data that are predictive of latent demand for cycling (see Appendix 1 for more information)
  • Network analyst tool, used to model route selection between trip origins and destinations.

Results

This analysis estimates that the development of the off road cycleway results in:

  • Approximately 95 cyclists per day diverting to the new path and another 99 new riders induced due to the new infrastructure.
  • 817 additional cycle kilometres travelled across the broader study area and 105 additional trips each day due to the addition of the proposed cycleway into the broader cycling network.
  • An additional 4 million cycle kilometres travelled over 10 years.

Get in contact with us if you’d like to learn more about our approach to demand estimation for cycling projects.