We were commissioned by TfNSW to assist in the development of a demand forecasting tool to understand future changes to cycling participation across the most heavily populated areas of NSW. In this project, we were able to provide an estimate of baseline cycling across the entire street and path network, as well as how this is likely to change over time, due to improvements to the network and population growth. The results of this activity also assisted in the creation of a cost-benefit analysis to help inform bicycle infrastructure investment decisions.

Key project outputs included:

  1. A model to estimate cycling across the entire street and path network in NSW, using Strava data combined with physical bicycle count data.
  2. The development of a Bike Use Propensity Index, using 2016 Census data, to assist in the estimation of future cycling demand.
  3. A spatial analysis of the areas of NSW with the highest number of short-distance car trips.
  4. An identification of the areas of NSW with the greatest latent demand for cycling and how cycling participation is likely to change due to the implementation of bicycle infrastructure.
  5. A logical sequence of bicycle infrastructure development, to maximise the economic benefits of cycling.
Using Strava data, combined with physical count data and regression modelling, we were able to build a reliable method for estimating cycling across the entire street and path network.


Download our work from the NSW Open Data Portal: https://opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/dataset/cycling-propensity

Feel free to contact our team should you have any questions regarding our work on cycling demand forecasting.